A project manager is using PERT to estimate the duration of a critical activity. The optimistic estimate is 10 days, the most likely estimate is 14 days, and the pessimistic estimate is 24 days. What is the expected duration (TE) of this activity?
17 days
14 days
15 days
16 days
The correct answer is 15 days. In PERT, the expected duration (TE) is calculated using the formula:
TE = (Optimistic + 4 x Most Likely + Pessimistic) / 6
Substituting the given values: TE = (10 + 4 x 14 + 24) / 6 TE = (10 + 56 + 24) / 6 TE = 90 / 6 TE = 15 days
This formula gives more weight to the most likely estimate, as it is considered the best guess based on normal conditions. The optimistic and pessimistic estimates account for best-case and worst-case scenarios, respectively. By using this weighted average, PERT provides a more realistic estimate that considers uncertainty in project activities.
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