A project manager is using three-point estimation to calculate the variance for a critical project activity. The optimistic estimate is 10 days, and the pessimistic estimate is 22 days. What is the variance for this activity?
36 days²
12 days²
4 days²
2 days²
The correct answer is 4 days². The formula for calculating variance in three-point estimation is Variance = ((Pessimistic - Optimistic) / 6)². In this case, we have:
Variance = ((22 - 10) / 6)² Variance = (12 / 6)² Variance = 2² Variance = 4
It's important to note that variance is expressed in squared units (days² in this case) and represents the spread of possible outcomes around the mean. A higher variance indicates greater uncertainty in the activity duration. Understanding how to calculate variance helps project managers quantify risks and make informed decisions about contingency planning and resource allocation.
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