As a project manager of an aerospace company, you are leading a complex satellite assembly project. A risk has been identified where a crucial component may not be delivered by the supplier on schedule due to potential production delays. What is the FIRST quantitative risk analysis tool you should utilize to assess the potential impact on the project's schedule?
Create a cause-and-effect diagram to trace the roots of potential production delays at the supplier's facility.
Perform a SWOT analysis to evaluate the strength of the supplier's production capabilities.
Prepare a risk impact matrix to categorize the supplier delay risk.
Conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the impact of delivery delays on the project schedule.
The first tool to utilize would be a simulation, specifically the Monte Carlo analysis, as it allows for the assessment of the combined effects of individual project risks and other uncertainties. By inputting variables such as delivery lead times and the probability of delay, the simulation can predict the range of possible outcomes on the project schedule, enabling the project team to understand the likelihood and impact of the risk.
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