An organization's security team is analyzing historical security incident reports to help predict future events. The security incidents that have been recorded over the previous five years are as follows: 1, 2, 3, 4, and 4 incidents per year, respectively. In preparation for the upcoming year, the security analyst is tasked with estimating the frequency at which a particular security incident is expected to occur, based on the average occurrences from these figures. What is the most accurate estimate of the frequency for this incident to occur over the next year?
To estimate the Annualized Rate of Occurrence, which is the likelihood of a particular incident occurring within a one-year period, one must calculate the average occurrences over a given set of data. This is accomplished by adding the number of incidents for each year (1+2+3+4+4) and dividing by the number of years (5), resulting in an average of 2.8 incidents per year. This provides the closest estimate for the expected frequency over the next year, given the historical data.
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